Ball’s third quarter results were met with a positive market response, reflecting the company’s ability to deliver both revenue growth and margin improvement amid external pressures. Management attributed performance to strong beverage can volume growth across all regions and ongoing cost discipline. CEO Daniel Fisher noted the company’s “continued customer and pack size mix shift toward lower-margin categories,” but emphasized that strategic alignment with fast-growing beverage brands supported overall profitability. Operational efficiency initiatives and robust demand in energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages played a central role in driving results.
Is now the time to buy BALL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Ball (BALL) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $3.38 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.34 billion (9.6% year-on-year growth, 1.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.02 vs analyst estimates of $1.02 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $559 million vs analyst estimates of $550.4 million (16.5% margin, 1.6% beat)
- Operating Margin: 13.9%, up from 9.1% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue rose 9% year on year vs analyst estimates of 7.8% growth (123.6 basis point beat)
- Market Capitalization: $12.44 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Ball’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Ghansham Panjabi (Baird) asked about operating leverage in North America, given comparable volume growth but lower-than-historical profit flow-through. CEO Daniel Fisher explained that ongoing mix shifts toward lower-margin categories and investments in supply chain efficiency are currently weighing on leverage, but should improve with the Oregon facility coming online.
- George Staphos (Bank of America) questioned the impact of tariffs and whether customers are shifting to non-aluminum packaging. Fisher replied that while tariffs lead to price increases, cans remain the preferred substrate, and there is no significant shift towards glass or other materials in key markets.
- Stefan Diaz (Morgan Stanley) inquired about potential contract movements affecting 2026 North America volumes. Fisher noted Ball’s strong contractual outlook and expects to be at or above industry volume growth, with tight capacity until additional facilities are operational.
- Jeffrey Zekauskas (JPMorgan) asked about the rise in inventories and the strategic investment in ORG Technology. Fisher and Interim CFO Dan Rabbitt explained that higher inventories reflect increased aluminum costs and efforts to align with customer demand, while the ORG Technology stake supports Ball’s strategic positioning in China.
- Christopher Parkinson (Wolfe Research) sought clarity on when mix normalization in North America would improve operating leverage. Fisher projected a cleaner mix and margin profile in 2027 as new capacity comes online and most mix shifts are completed.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be tracking (1) the start-up and ramp of the Millersburg, Oregon facility and its effect on supply chain efficiency, (2) execution of tariff pass-through strategies and stability in input costs, and (3) continued growth in energy and nonalcoholic beverage can volumes. Successful management of these factors, along with progress in European and South American market share gains, will be critical markers of execution.
Ball currently trades at $46.50, down from $47.10 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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