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Is Oracle Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is a global provider of enterprise software and cloud services based in Austin, Texas. The company runs Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to deliver computing, storage, networking, and database capabilities to businesses worldwide.

Its portfolio spans database platforms, middleware, and enterprise applications such as ERP, HCM, and CRM, tailored to many industries. Oracle also supplies hardware, consulting, support, and managed services that help organizations implement and optimize its integrated IT solutions. With a market capitalization of $570.96 billion, the company is classified as a “mega-cap” stock. 

 

Oracle’s stock had reached a 52-week high of $345.72 on Sept. 10, but is down 43% from that level. Investor concerns about an inflated artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and high valuations in the sector have led to the stock declining. Over the past three months, Oracle’s stock has dropped by 16.3% over the past three months. On the other hand, the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) is up 4% over the same period

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Over the longer term, an ambiguity manifests. Over the past 52 weeks, Oracle’s stock increased by 4.8%, underperforming the Dow Jones’ 5.3% gain over the same period. On the other hand, the stock is up by 26.3% over the past six months, outperforming the index’s 13.2% gains. Oracle has been trading below the 50-day moving average since late October, while it recently dipped below the 200-day moving average. 

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On Sept. 9, Oracle announced its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2026 (the quarter ended Aug. 31). In that, the company reported 12% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth to $14.93 billion, driven by a 28% YOY increase in cloud revenues. 

However, this missed the Wall Street analyst’s estimated figure of $15.01 billion. Oracle’s non-GAAP EPS increased by 6% annually to $1.47, matching Street forecasts. Given Oracle’s strong cloud trajectory in Q1, its stock gained 36% intraday on Sept. 10. 

The company is aggressively pushing into AI capabilities. Last month, it expanded the partnership with major chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) and became a launch partner for the AI supercluster powered by AMD Instinct MI450 Series GPUs. The partnership has agreed on the initial deployment of 50,000 GPUs in Q3 CY2026, with expansion expected in 2027 and beyond.

We compare Oracle’s performance with that of another software infrastructure firm, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), which has declined 3.6% over the past 52 weeks and marginally over the past six months. Therefore, Oracle has been the clear outperformer over these periods.

Wall Street analysts are moderately bullish on Oracle’s stock. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 39 analysts covering it. The mean price target of $349.46 indicates a 77.4% upside compared to current levels. However, the Street-high price target of $430 indicates a 118.2% upside. 


On the date of publication, Anushka Mukherjee did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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