10-Q
 


SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 
 
 

FORM 10-Q

 
 
 

Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 
 

For the Quarterly Period Ended
September 30, 2006

Commission File
No. 1-13653

 
 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

 
 

Incorporated under
the Laws of Ohio

 IRS Employer I.D.
No. 31-1544320

   
   

One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202

(513) 579-2121

 
 
 
 
 
 

       Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements
for the past 90 days. Yes   X      No       

 

       Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, or a non-accelerated filer:
                          Large Accelerated Filer   X        Accelerated Filer             Non-Accelerated Filer       

 

       Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company. Yes          No   X  

 

       As of November 1, 2006, there were 79,153,318 shares of the Registrant's Common Stock outstanding, excluding
9,953,392 shares owned by a subsidiary.

 

 

 

 


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

 

 

Page 

Part I - Financial Information

 

  Item 1 - Financial Statements:

 

                Consolidated Balance Sheet

2 

                Consolidated Statement of Operations

3 

                Consolidated Statement of Changes in Shareholders' Equity

4 

                Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows

5 

                Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

6 

  Item  2 - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition

 

            and Results of Operations

17 

  Item  3 - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure of Market Risk

29 

  Item  4 - Controls and Procedures

29 

   

Part II - Other Information

 

  Item  2 - Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

30 

  Item  6 - Exhibits

30 

  Signature

30 

   

                                                               

 
   

 

 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART I

ITEM I - FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (unaudited)

(Dollars In Thousands)

 

September 30,

December 31,

 

        2006 

       2005 

Assets:

   

  Cash and cash equivalents

$ 1,139,818 

$   471,849 

  Investments:

   

   Fixed maturities:

   

    Available for sale - at fair value

   

    (amortized cost - $14,450,880 and $14,272,314)

14,401,580 

14,326,614 

    Trading - at fair value

279,779 

271,851 

   Other stocks - at fair value

   

    (cost - $635,510 and $501,459)

716,010 

556,659 

   Policy loans

264,930 

258,744 

   Real estate and other investments

    502,741 

    338,254 

       Total cash and investments

17,304,858 

16,223,971 

  Recoverables from reinsurers and prepaid

   

   reinsurance premiums

3,881,564 

3,263,128 

  Agents' balances and premiums receivable

797,714 

574,882 

  Deferred policy acquisition costs

1,233,613 

1,139,515 

  Other receivables

434,094 

388,078 

  Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)

663,533 

643,506 

  Prepaid expenses, deferred charges and other assets

575,945 

416,030 

  Goodwill

    178,807 

    166,882 

     
 

$25,070,128 

$22,815,992 

     

Liabilities and Capital:

   

  Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

$ 6,117,648 

$ 5,790,709 

  Unearned premiums

1,850,042 

1,643,954 

  Annuity benefits accumulated

9,180,740 

8,417,298 

  Life, accident and health reserves

1,396,303 

1,088,016 

  Payable to reinsurers

480,004 

298,664 

  Long-term debt

923,720 

999,703 

  Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)

663,533 

643,506 

  Accounts payable, accrued expenses and other 

   

    liabilities

  1,417,358 

  1,215,490 

        Total liabilities

22,029,348 

20,097,340 

     

  Minority interest

280,557 

261,110 

     

  Shareholders' Equity:

   

    Common Stock, no par value

   

      - 200,000,000 shares authorized

   

      - 79,115,424 and 78,067,514 shares outstanding

79,115 

78,068 

    Capital surplus

1,245,175 

1,194,600 

    Retained earnings

1,415,833 

1,134,074 

    Unrealized gain on marketable securities, net

     20,100 

     50,800 

        Total shareholders' equity

  2,760,223 

  2,457,542 

     
 

$25,070,128 

$22,815,992 

2

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS (unaudited)

(In Thousands, Except Per Share Data)

 

 

Three months ended    

Nine months ended    

 

     September 30,      

      September 30,     

 

2006 

2005 

2006 

2005 

Income:

       

  Property and casualty insurance premiums

$  730,859 

$  651,361 

$1,924,965 

$1,775,795 

  Life, accident and health premiums

91,742 

91,811 

249,291 

276,256 

  Investment income

233,148 

214,076 

698,512 

640,734 

  Realized gains (losses) on securities

(2,454)

10,748 

19,876 

27,303 

  Other income

    83,216 

   107,837 

   234,956 

   265,904 

 

1,136,511 

1,075,833 

3,127,600 

2,985,992 

Costs and Expenses:

       

  Property and casualty insurance:

       

    Losses and loss adjustment expenses

424,801 

604,433 

1,135,269 

1,311,613 

    Commissions and other underwriting

       

      expenses

225,276 

181,283 

567,232 

497,589 

  Annuity benefits

88,331 

81,122 

255,142 

244,950 

  Life, accident and health benefits

69,136 

72,962 

203,330 

212,593 

  Annuity and supplemental insurance

    acquisition expenses

38,281 

31,592 

102,041 

99,835 

  Interest charges on borrowed money

18,324 

20,004 

53,931 

59,637 

  Other operating and general expenses

   115,035 

   112,749 

   336,903 

   335,345 

   979,184 

 1,104,145 

 2,653,848 

 2,761,562 

         

Operating earnings (loss) before

       

  income taxes

157,327 

(28,312)

473,752 

224,430 

Provision (credit) for income taxes

    56,482 

    (6,506)

   157,771 

    82,830 

         

Net operating earnings (loss)

100,845 

(21,806)

315,981 

141,600 

         

Minority interest expense

(6,668)

(6,772)

(21,712)

(21,453)

Equity in net losses of investee,

       

  net of tax

      (627)

       (66)

    (1,605)

    (4,904)

Earnings (loss) from continuing operations

93,550 

(28,644)

292,664 

115,243 

Discontinued operations, net of tax

      -    

     2,214 

    25,246 

     2,827 

         

Net Earnings (Loss)

$   93,550 

($   26,430)

$  317,910 

$  118,070 

         

Basic earnings (loss) per Common Share:

       

  Continuing operations

$1.19 

($0.37)

$3.73 

$1.49 

  Discontinued operations

  -   

  .03 

  .32 

  .04 

  Net earnings (loss) available to

       

    Common Shares

$1.19 

($0.34)

$4.05 

$1.53 

         

Diluted earnings (loss) per Common Share:

       

  Continuing operations

$1.16 

($0.37)

$3.64 

$1.47 

  Discontinued operations

  -   

  .03 

  .32 

  .04 

  Net earnings (loss) available to

       

    Common Shares

$1.16 

($0.34)

$3.96 

$1.51 

         

Average number of Common Shares:

       

  Basic

78,760 

77,335 

78,519 

77,060 

  Diluted

80,400 

78,702 

80,043 

78,267 

Cash dividends per Common Share

$.1375 

$.125 

$.4125 

$.375 

3

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY (unaudited)

(Dollars in Thousands)

 

   

Common Stock 

 

Unrealized 

 
 

Common 

and Capital 

Retained 

Gain on 

 
 

    Shares 

     Surplus 

  Earnings 

Securities 

     Total 

Balance at January 1, 2006

78,067,514 

$1,272,668 

$1,134,074 

$ 50,800 

$2,457,542 

           

Net earnings

-    

-    

317,910 

-    

317,910 

Change in unrealized

-    

-    

-    

(30,700)

   (30,700)

  Comprehensive income

       

287,210 

           

Dividends on Common Stock

-    

-    

(32,338)

-    

(32,338)

Shares issued:

         

  Exercise of stock options

1,027,618 

35,823 

-    

-    

35,823 

  Dividend reinvestment plan

96,829 

3,787 

-    

-    

3,787 

  Employee stock purchase plan

18,137 

757 

-    

-    

757 

  Deferred compensation distributions

42,108 

1,646 

-    

-    

1,646 

  Directors fees paid in stock

8,520 

365 

-    

-    

365 

Shares tendered in option exercises

(145,302)

(2,386)

(3,813)

-    

(6,199)

Stock-based compensation expense

-    

5,135 

-    

-    

5,135 

Capital transactions of subsidiaries

-    

1,919 

-    

-    

1,919 

Other

      -    

     4,576 

      -    

    -    

     4,576 

           

Balance at September 30, 2006

79,115,424 

$1,324,290 

$1,415,833 

$ 20,100 

$2,760,223 

           
           
           
           
           

Balance at January 1, 2005

76,634,204 

$1,222,507 

$  976,340 

$231,700 

$2,430,547 

           

Net earnings

-    

-    

118,070 

 

118,070 

Change in unrealized

-    

-    

-    

(138,000)

  (138,000)

  Comprehensive loss

       

(19,930)

           

Dividends on Common Stock

-    

-    

(28,859)

-    

(28,859)

Shares issued:

         

  Exercise of stock options

947,138 

25,518 

-    

-    

25,518 

  Dividend reinvestment plan

144,303 

4,214 

-    

-    

4,214 

  Employee stock purchase plan

19,873 

633 

-    

-    

633 

  Retirement plan contributions

113,414 

3,622 

-    

-    

3,622 

  Deferred compensation distributions

7,374 

222 

-    

-    

222 

  Directors fees paid in stock

9,320 

300 

-    

-    

300 

Shares tendered in option exercises

(401,784)

(6,415)

(6,015)

-    

(12,430)

Capital transactions of subsidiaries

-    

(7,850)

-    

-    

(7,850)

Other

      -    

     6,995 

      -    

    -    

     6,995 

           

Balance at September 30, 2005

77,473,842 

$1,249,746 

$1,059,536 

$ 93,700 

$2,402,982 

           

 

 

4

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED)

(In Thousands)

 

Nine months ended     

 

      September 30,      

 

2006 

2005 

Operating Activities:

  Net earnings

$  317,910 

$  118,070 

  Adjustments:

   

    Equity in net losses of investee

1,605 

4,904 

    Minority interest

27,481 

22,075 

    Depreciation and amortization

120,670 

148,442 

    Annuity benefits

255,142 

246,529 

    Realized gains on investing activities

(82,783)

(68,320)

    Net purchases/sales of trading securities

(10,767)

12,047 

    Deferred annuity and life policy acquisition costs

(114,612)

(94,021)

    Increase in reinsurance and other receivables

(503,585)

(38,456)

    Decrease (increase) in other assets

48,832 

(5,053)

    Increase in insurance claims and reserves

546,213 

753,862 

    Increase (decrease) in payable to reinsurers

181,037 

(251,267)

    Decrease in other liabilities

(6,848)

(12,626)

    Other, net

    17,358 

    18,395 

      Net cash provided by operating activities

   797,653 

   854,581 

     

Investing Activities:

   

  Purchases of and additional investments in:

   

    Fixed maturity investments

(1,871,990)

(3,258,133)

    Equity securities

(264,665)

(181,606)

    Subsidiaries

(206,996)

(17,500)

    Real estate, property and equipment

(36,895)

(69,327)

  Maturities and redemptions of fixed maturity

   

    investments

708,482 

864,715 

  Sales of:

 

 

    Fixed maturity investments

1,176,870 

1,331,269 

    Equity securities

185,907 

202,968 

    Subsidiary

37,500 

-    

    Real estate, property and equipment

36,219 

44,727 

  Cash and cash equivalents of businesses

   

    acquired or sold, net

201,936 

52,556 

  Increase in other investments

   (38,766)

    (9,615)

    Net cash used in investing activities

   (72,398)

(1,039,946)

     

Financing Activities:

   

  Fixed annuity receipts

914,292 

632,465 

  Annuity surrenders, benefits and withdrawals

(898,561)

(688,416)

  Net transfers from variable annuity assets

17,801 

10,127 

  Additional long-term borrowings

117,513 

14,716 

  Reductions of long-term debt

(206,993)

(28,342)

  Issuances of Common Stock

27,899 

11,558 

  Subsidiary's issuance of stock in public offering

-    

40,391 

  Cash dividends paid on Common Stock

(28,551)

(24,645)

  Other, net

      (686)

    (2,923)

    Net cash used in financing activities

   (57,286)

   (35,069)

     

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents

667,969 

(220,434)

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

   471,849 

   861,742 

     

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

$1,139,818 

$  641,308 

5

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

_________________________________________________________________________________

INDEX TO NOTES

    A.

Accounting Policies

E.

Long-Term Debt

    B.

Acquisitions and Sales of

F.

Shareholders' Equity

 

Operations

G.

Discontinued Operations

    C.

Segments of Operations

H.

Commitments and Contingencies

    D.

Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

   

________________________________________________________________________________

  1. Accounting Policies
  2. Basis of Presentation  The accompanying consolidated financial statements for American Financial Group, Inc. ("AFG") and subsidiaries are unaudited; however, management believes that all adjustments (consisting only of normal recurring accruals unless otherwise disclosed herein) necessary for fair presentation have been made. The results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for the year. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q and therefore do not include all information and footnotes necessary to be in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles.

    Certain reclassifications have been made to prior years to conform to the current year's presentation. All significant intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated. All acquisitions have been treated as purchases. The results of operations of companies since their formation or acquisition are included in the consolidated financial statements.

    The preparation of the financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Changes in circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimates.

    Investments  Fixed maturity securities and equity securities classified as "available for sale" are reported at fair value with unrealized gains and losses reported as a separate component of shareholders' equity. Fixed maturities classified as "trading" are reported at fair value with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses during the period included in investment income. Loans receivable are carried primarily at the aggregate unpaid balance. Premiums and discounts on fixed maturity securities are amortized using the interest method; mortgage-backed securities are amortized over a period based on estimated future principal payments, including prepayments. Prepayment assumptions are reviewed periodically and adjusted to reflect actual prepayments and changes in expectations.

    Gains or losses on securities are determined on the specific identification basis. When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other than temporary, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (included in realized gains (losses)) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced.

    Certain AFG subsidiaries loan fixed maturity and equity securities to other institutions for short periods of time. The borrower is required to provide collateral on which AFG earns investment income, net of a fee to the lending agent. AFG records the collateral held (included in other assets) and the liability to return the collateral (included in other liabilities) in its Balance Sheet. The securities loaned remain a recorded asset on AFG's Balance Sheet. At September 30, 2006, the amount of collateral held was approximately $159 million and the fair value of the securities lent was approximately $156 million. There were no securities loaned at December 31, 2005.

    6

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    Derivatives  Derivatives included in AFG's Balance Sheet are recorded at fair value and consist primarily of (i) the interest component of certain life reinsurance contracts (included in other liabilities), (ii) interest rate swaps (included in debt), and (iii) the equity-based component of certain annuity products (included in annuity benefits accumulated) and related call options (included in other investments) designed to be consistent with the characteristics of the liabilities and used to mitigate the risk embedded in those annuity products. Changes in the fair value of derivatives are included in current earnings.

    The terms of the interest rate swaps match those of the debt; therefore, the swaps are considered to be (and are accounted for as) 100% effective fair value hedges. Both the swaps and the hedged debt are adjusted for changes in fair value by offsetting amounts. Accordingly, since the swaps are included with long-term debt in the Balance Sheet, the only effect on AFG's financial statements is that the interest expense on the hedged debt is recorded based on the variable rate.

    Goodwill  Goodwill represents the excess of cost of subsidiaries over AFG's equity in their underlying net assets. Goodwill is not amortized, but is subject to an impairment test at least annually.

    Insurance  As discussed under "Reinsurance" below, unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums have not been reduced for reinsurance recoverable.

           Reinsurance  Amounts recoverable from reinsurers are estimated in a manner consistent with the claim liability associated with the reinsured policies. AFG's insurance subsidiaries report as assets (a) the estimated reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses, including an estimate for losses incurred but not reported, and (b) amounts paid to reinsurers applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. Payable to reinsurers includes ceded premiums due to reinsurers as well as ceded premiums retained by AFG's property and casualty insurance subsidiaries under contracts to fund ceded losses as they become due. AFG's insurance subsidiaries also assume reinsurance from other companies. Income on reinsurance assumed is recognized based on reports received from ceding companies.

    Subsidiaries of AFG's 81%-owned subsidiary, Great American Financial Resources, Inc. ("GAFRI"), cede life insurance policies to a third party on a funds withheld basis whereby GAFRI retains the assets (securities) associated with the reinsurance contracts. Interest is credited to the reinsurer based on the actual investment performance of the retained assets. These reinsurance contracts are considered to contain embedded derivatives (that must be adjusted to fair value) because the yield on the payables is based on specific blocks of the ceding companies' assets, rather than the overall creditworthiness of the ceding company. GAFRI determined that changes in the fair value of the underlying portfolios of fixed maturity securities is an appropriate measure of the value of the embedded derivative. GAFRI classifies the securities related to these transactions as "trading." The adjustment to fair value on the embedded derivatives offsets the investment income recorded on the adjustment to fair value of the related trading portfolios.

    7

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

           Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs ("DPAC")  Policy acquisition costs (principally commissions, premium taxes and other marketing and underwriting expenses) related to the production of new business are deferred. For the property and casualty companies, DPAC is limited based upon recoverability without any consideration for anticipated investment income and is charged against income ratably over the terms of the related policies.

    DPAC related to annuities and universal life insurance products is deferred to the extent deemed recoverable and amortized, with interest, in relation to the present value of actual and expected gross profits on the policies. To the extent that realized gains and losses result in adjustments to the amortization of DPAC related to annuities, such adjustments are reflected as components of realized gains. DPAC related to annuities is also adjusted, net of tax, for the change in amortization that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. This adjustment is included in "Unrealized gain on marketable securities, net" in the shareholders' equity section of the Balance Sheet.

    DPAC related to traditional life and health insurance is amortized over the expected premium paying period of the related policies, in proportion to the ratio of annual premium revenues to total anticipated premium revenues. DPAC includes the present value of future profits on business in force of insurance companies acquired by GAFRI, which represents the portion of the costs to acquire companies that is allocated to the value of the right to receive future cash flows from insurance contracts existing at the date of acquisition. The present value of future profits is amortized with interest in relation to expected gross profits of the acquired policies for annuities and universal life products and in relation to the premium paying period for traditional life and health insurance products.

           Annuity and Supplemental Insurance Acquisition Expenses  Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses on the Statement of Operations consists of amortization of DPAC related to the annuity, supplemental insurance and run-off life businesses. This line item also includes certain marketing and commission costs of those businesses that are expensed as paid.

           Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses  The net liabilities stated for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims are based upon (a) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting period on direct business written; (b) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (c) estimates of unreported losses (including possible development on known claims) based on past experience; (d) estimates based on experience of expenses for investigating and adjusting claims; and (e) the current state of the law and coverage litigation. Establishing reserves for asbestos, environmental and other mass tort claims involves considerably more judgment than other types of claims due to, among other things, inconsistent court decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, novel theories of coverage, and judicial interpretations that often expand theories of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage.

    Loss reserve liabilities are subject to the impact of changes in claim amounts and frequency and other factors. Changes in estimates of the liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses are reflected in the Statement of Operations in the period in which determined. Despite the variability inherent in such estimates, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.

    8

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

           Annuity Benefits Accumulated  Annuity receipts and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in "annuity benefits accumulated" rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited are charged to expense and decreases for surrender charges are credited to other income.

           Life, Accident and Health Reserves  Liabilities for future policy benefits under traditional life, accident and health policies are computed using the net level premium method. Computations are based on the original projections of investment yields, mortality, morbidity and surrenders and include provisions for unfavorable deviations. Reserves established for accident and health claims are modified as necessary to reflect actual experience and developing trends.

           Variable Annuity Assets and Liabilities  Separate accounts related to variable annuities represent the fair value of deposits invested in underlying investment funds on which GAFRI earns a fee. Investment funds are selected and may be changed only by the policyholder, who retains all investment risk.

           Premium Recognition  Property and casualty premiums are earned generally over the terms of the policies on a pro rata basis. Unearned premiums represent that portion of premiums written which is applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. On reinsurance assumed from other insurance companies or written through various underwriting organizations, unearned premiums are based on reports received from such companies and organizations. For traditional life, accident and health products, premiums are recognized as revenue when legally collectible from policyholders. For interest-sensitive life and universal life products, premiums are recorded in a policyholder account, which is reflected as a liability. Revenue is recognized as amounts are assessed against the policyholder account for mortality coverage and contract expenses.

    Payable to Subsidiary Trusts  Certain subsidiaries have wholly-owned subsidiary trusts that issued preferred securities and, in turn, purchased a like amount of subordinated debt from their parent company. Interest and principal payments from the parent fund the respective trust obligations. AFG does not consolidate these subsidiary trusts because they are "variable interest entities" in which AFG is not considered to be the primary beneficiary. Accordingly, the subordinated debt due to the trusts is included in "long-term debt" in the Balance Sheet and the related interest expense is included in "interest charges on borrowed money" in the Statement of Operations.

    Minority Interest  For Balance Sheet purposes, minority interest represents the interests of noncontrolling shareholders in consolidated entities. In the Statement of Operations, minority interest expense represents such shareholders' interest in the earnings of those entities.

    Income Taxes  AFG files consolidated federal income tax returns that include all U.S. subsidiaries that are at least 80%-owned, except for certain life insurance subsidiaries that have been owned for less than five years.

    Deferred income taxes are calculated using the liability method. Under this method, deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between financial reporting and tax bases and are measured using enacted tax rates. Deferred tax assets are recognized if it is more likely than not that a benefit will be realized.

    9

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    Stock-Based Compensation  Effective January 1, 2006, AFG implemented Statement of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS") No. 123(R), "Share-Based Payment" using the modified prospective method under which prior year amounts are not restated. Under SFAS No. 123(R), companies must recognize compensation expense for all new share-based awards (including employee stock options), and the nonvested portions of prior awards, based on their calculated "fair value" at the date of grant. Beginning in 2006, all share-based grants are recognized as compensation expense over the vesting period. AFG uses the Black-Scholes pricing model to measure the fair value of employee stock options.

    Prior to the implementation of SFAS No. 123(R), AFG accounted for stock options and other stock-based compensation plans using the intrinsic value method prescribed by Accounting Principles Board Opinion ("APB") No. 25, "Accounting for Stock Issued to Employees." Under this method, no compensation expense for stock option grants was recognized because options were granted at exercise prices equal to the fair value of the shares at the dates of grant. See Note F - "Shareholders' Equity" for further information on stock options.

    Benefit Plans  AFG provides retirement benefits to qualified employees of participating companies through the AFG Retirement and Savings Plan, a defined contribution plan. AFG makes all contributions to the retirement fund portion of the plan and matches a percentage of employee contributions to the savings fund. Company contributions are expensed in the year for which they are declared.

    AFG and many of its subsidiaries provide health care and life insurance benefits to eligible retirees. AFG also provides postemployment benefits to former or inactive employees (primarily those on disability) who were not deemed retired under other company plans. The projected future cost of providing these benefits is expensed over the period employees earn such benefits.

    Earnings Per Share  Basic earnings per share is calculated using the weighted average number of shares of common stock outstanding during the period. The calculation of diluted earnings per share includes (i) deductions of $386,000 in the third quarter of 2006 and $873,000 in the nine months of 2006 from net earnings related to dilution of majority-owned subsidiaries and (ii) the following additions to average shares outstanding representing the dilutive effect of stock-based compensation plans: third quarter of 2006 and 2005 - 1,640,000 and 1,367,000 shares; nine months of 2006 and 2005 - 1,524,000 shares and 1,207,000 shares, respectively.

    Statement of Cash Flows  For cash flow purposes, "investing activities" are defined as making and collecting loans and acquiring and disposing of debt or equity instruments and property and equipment. "Financing activities" include obtaining resources from owners and providing them with a return on their investments, borrowing money and repaying amounts borrowed. Annuity receipts, benefits and withdrawals are also reflected as financing activities. All other activities are considered "operating." Short-term investments having original maturities of three months or less when purchased are considered to be cash equivalents for purposes of the financial statements.

  3. Acquisitions and Sales of Operations

Ceres Group, Inc.  On August 7, 2006, GAFRI acquired Ceres Group, Inc. ("Ceres") for $204.4 million in cash. In connection with the acquisition, Ceres reinsured 100% of its major medical business and 50% of its in-force senior business, which focuses primarily on sales of Medicare supplement and other supplemental insurance products to the senior market. As a result of the reinsurance, Ceres

10

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

has exited the major medical business. Following the acquisition, Ceres paid a $60 million return of capital distribution to GAFRI. GAFRI expects the retained Ceres business to generate at least $120 million in life, accident and health premiums in 2007. The preliminary allocation of purchase price for the Ceres acquisition resulted in an increase in goodwill of $11.9 million. Pro forma results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2006, assuming the acquisition of Ceres had taken place at the beginning of 2006 would not differ significantly from actual reported results.

Chatham Bars Inn  In June 2006, GAFRI sold a resort hotel located on Cape Cod for $166 million. See Note G - "Discontinued Operations."

Old Standard Life Fixed Annuity Business  In January 2006, GAFRI acquired the fixed annuity business written by Old Standard Life Insurance Company through a reinsurance transaction. As part of the assets transferred in the reinsurance transaction, GAFRI acquired the stock of Old West Annuity and Life Insurance Company. In total, the transaction resulted in an increase of approximately $280 million in both annuity benefits accumulated and cash and investments.

Great American Life Assurance Company of Puerto Rico  In the fourth quarter of 2005, GAFRI reached an agreement to sell its subsidiary, Great American Life Assurance Company of Puerto Rico ("GAPR"), for $37.5 million in cash and recorded an estimated $3.4 million pretax loss. GAFRI completed the sale in January 2006 and recognized an additional $463,000 loss (included in realized gains (losses) on securities) offsetting a like amount of earnings recorded in 2006 prior to the sale. GAFRI acquired GAPR in 1997 for approximately $50 million. During 2005, GAPR paid $100 million in dividends to GAFRI.

Farmers Crop Insurance Alliance, Inc.  On September 30, 2005, AFG acquired the multi-peril crop insurance and the crop hail insurance business written through Farmers Crop Insurance Alliance, Inc. for $17.5 million in cash. AFG will pay additional amounts of up to 10% of annual premiums over the next three years based on certain customer retention criteria. Approximately $16.5 million of the initial Farmers Crop purchase price was recorded as intangible renewal rights and is being amortized over an estimated retention period of four years on a straight-line basis. Any future payments (not expected to exceed $15 million) based on customer retention will also be recorded as intangible renewal rights. While there is uncertainty as to the amount of premiums that ultimately will be retained due to the departure of several Farmers' employees in the months preceding the acquisition, AFG expects this acquired business will generate gross written premiums of about $170 million in 2006.

  1. Segments of Operations  AFG manages its business as three segments: (i) property and casualty insurance, (ii) annuity and supplemental insurance and (iii) other, which includes holding company costs.

AFG reports its property and casualty insurance business in the following Specialty sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related business and commercial automobile, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes executive and professional liability, umbrella and excess liability and excess and surplus, (iii) Specialty financial, which includes fidelity and surety bonds and collateral protection, and (iv) California workers' compensation. AFG's annuity and supplemental insurance business markets primarily retirement annuities and various forms of supplemental insurance. AFG's reportable segments and their components were determined based primarily upon similar economic characteristics, products and services.

11

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

The following tables (in thousands) show AFG's revenues and operating earnings (loss) before income taxes by significant business segment and sub-segment.

 

Three months ended   

Nine months ended    

 

     September 30,     

     September 30,     

 

2006 

2005 

2006 

2005 

Revenues (a)

       

Property and casualty insurance:

       

  Premiums earned:

       

    Specialty

       

      Property and transportation

$  322,419 

$  270,662 

$  747,528 

$  640,319 

      Specialty casualty

207,557 

183,794 

593,075 

550,858 

      Specialty financial

110,545 

91,586 

304,236 

270,008 

      California workers' compensation

69,640 

88,128 

222,767 

262,029 

      Other

20,338 

16,496 

55,895 

49,507 

    Other lines

       360 

       695 

     1,464 

     3,074 

 

730,859 

651,361 

1,924,965 

1,775,795 

  Investment income

79,835 

71,336 

240,471 

209,821 

  Realized gains

1,431 

7,561 

28,754 

16,857 

  Other

    45,878 

    76,636 

   143,776 

   179,666 

 

858,003 

806,894 

2,337,966 

2,182,139 

Annuities and supplemental insurance:

       

  Investment income

151,667 

141,951 

452,468 

428,685 

  Life, accident and health premiums

91,742 

91,811 

249,291 

276,256 

  Realized gains (losses)

(2,812)

3,008 

(7,887)

16,635 

  Other

    33,019 

    22,020 

    79,278 

    63,816 

 

273,616 

258,790 

773,150 

785,392 

Other

     4,892 

    10,149 

    16,484 

    18,461 

$1,136,511 

$1,075,833 

$3,127,600 

$2,985,992 

         

Operating Earnings (Loss) Before

       

  Income Taxes

       

Property and casualty insurance:

       

  Underwriting:

       

    Specialty

       

      Property and transportation

$   40,386 

$    5,242 

$  113,551 

$   72,701 

      Specialty casualty

44,040 

19,475 

87,014 

33,709 

      Specialty financial

(24,091)

(9,253)

(22,676)

 (21,159)

      California workers' compensation

25,275 

29,406 

54,115 

63,970 

      Other

(3,378)

(1,738)

(3,049)

(2,295)

    Other lines (b)

    (1,450)

  (177,487)

    (6,491)

  (180,333)

 

80,782 

(134,355)

222,464 

(33,407)

  Investment income, realized gains

       

    and other

    70,942 

    98,397 

   244,100 

   230,560 

 

151,724 

(35,958)

466,564 

197,153 

         

Annuities and supplemental

 

 

 

 

  insurance (c)

30,804 

22,721 

78,887 

89,311 

Other (d)

   (25,201)

   (15,075)

   (71,699)

   (62,034)

 

$  157,327 

($   28,312)

$  473,752 

$  224,430 

         

(a)  Revenues include sales of products and services as well as other income

     earned by the respective segments.

(b)  Includes a third quarter 2005 charge of $179.3 million to increase

     asbestos, environmental and other mass tort reserves.

(c)  Includes a third quarter 2005 charge of $9.5 million related to

     environmental liabilities at GAFRI's former manufacturing operatons.

(d)  Includes holding company expenses.

12

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

  1. Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs  As discussed in Note A - "Accounting Policies," deferred policy acquisition costs related to annuities are adjusted for changes in unrealized gains (losses) on securities. The decrease in net unrealized gains during the first nine months of 2006 resulted in a $18.7 million increase in deferred acquisition costs.
  2. Included in deferred policy acquisition costs in AFG's Balance Sheet are $94.4 million and $54.1 million at September 30, 2006, and December 31, 2005, respectively, representing the present value of future profits ("PVFP") related to acquisitions by AFG's annuity and supplemental insurance business. The PVFP amounts are net of $67.5 million and $82.5 million of accumulated amortization. The change in PVFP and related accumulated amortization reflects the August 2006 acquisition of Ceres, partially offset by the January 2006 sale of GAPR. Amortization of the PVFP was $2.8 million in the third quarter and $6.1 million in the first nine months of 2006 and $1.6 million in the third quarter and $7.5 million in the first nine months of 2005, respectively.

  3. Long-Term Debt  The carrying value of long-term debt consisted of the following (in thousands):

 

September 30,

December 31,

 

        2006 

       2005 

Holding Company:

   

  AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due April 2009

$182,814 

$226,052 

  AFG Senior Convertible Notes due June 2033

189,825 

189,857 

  AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due February 2034

115,000 

115,000 

  AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due December 2007

59,493 

59,493 

  Other

   3,783 

   3,768 

 

 550,915 

 594,170 

Subsidiaries:

   

  GAFRI 7-1/2% Senior Debentures due November 2033

112,500 

112,500 

  GAFRI 7-1/4% Senior Debentures due January 2034

86,250 

86,250 

  GAFRI 6-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2008

33,590 

100,000 

  Notes payable secured by real estate

67,925 

33,112 

  American Premier Underwriters 10-7/8% Subordinated

   

    Notes due May 2011

8,079 

8,125 

  Other

   7,501 

   8,586 

 

 315,845 

 348,573 

Payable to Subsidiary Trusts:

   

  GAFRI 8-7/8% Subordinated Debentures due

   

    January 2027

21,960 

21,960 

  GAFRI 7.35% Subordinated Debentures due May 2033

20,000 

20,000 

  National Interstate Variable Rate Subordinated

   

    Debentures due May 2033

  15,000 

  15,000 

 

  56,960 

  56,960 

     
 

$923,720 

$999,703 

     

At September 30, 2006, scheduled principal payments on debt for the balance of 2006 and the subsequent five years were as follows: 2006 - $.1 million; 2007 - $60.8 million; 2008 - $34.4 million; 2009 - $184.5 million; 2010 - $3.0 million; and 2011 - $9.1 million.

During the first nine months of 2006, AFG repurchased $43.5 million of its 7-1/8% Debentures due 2009 for $45.6 million in cash and GAFRI repurchased $66.4 million of its 6-7/8% Notes for $68.7 million in cash. In July 2006, an AFG subsidiary borrowed $42 million under a 6.3% 10-year mortgage loan secured by one of its hotel properties.

13

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

In March 2006, AFG and GAFRI replaced their existing credit agreements with a new five-year revolving credit facility under which they can borrow a combined $500 million. AFG and GAFRI have agreed not to borrow more than $325 million and $200 million, respectively, under the credit facility and AFG has agreed to guarantee amounts borrowed by GAFRI. Amounts borrowed bear interest at rates ranging from 0.5% to 1.25% over LIBOR based on AFG's credit rating. No amounts were borrowed under these agreements at September 30, 2006 or December 31, 2005.

To achieve a desired balance between fixed and variable rate debt, GAFRI has entered into interest rate swaps that effectively convert its 6-7/8% fixed rate Senior Notes to a floating rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 2.9%. In connection with the 2006 debt repurchases discussed above, GAFRI paid an additional $2 million to effectively terminate the portion of the interest rate swaps that covered the repurchased debt.

AFG's Senior Convertible Notes were issued at a price of 37.153% of the principal amount due at maturity. Interest is payable semiannually at a rate of 4% of issue price per year through June 2008, after which interest at 4% annually will be accrued and added to the carrying value of the Notes. The Notes are redeemable at AFG's option at any time on or after June 2, 2008, at accreted value ranging from $371.53 per Note to $1,000 per Note at maturity. Generally, holders may convert each Note into 11.5016 shares of AFG Common Stock (at $32.30 per share currently) (i) if the average market price of AFG Common Stock to be received upon conversion exceeds 120% of the accreted value ($38.76 per share currently) for a specified period, (ii) if the credit rating of the Notes is significantly lowered, or, (iii) if AFG calls the notes for redemption. Based on the market price of AFG's Common Stock during the quarter ended September 30, 2006, the Notes are currently convertible through December 31, 2006. AFG has delivered cash in lieu of Common Stock upon conversion of the Notes and intends to continue to do so. Accordingly, shares issuable upon conversion of the Notes are not treated as dilutive.

  1. Shareholders' Equity  AFG is authorized to issue 12.5 million shares of Voting Preferred Stock and 12.5 million shares of Nonvoting Preferred Stock, each without par value.
  2. Stock Incentive Plans  Under AFG's 2005 Stock Incentive Plan, employees of AFG and its subsidiaries are eligible to receive equity awards in the form of stock options, stock appreciation rights, restricted stock awards, restricted stock units and stock awards. This plan replaced AFG's existing stock option plan in the first quarter of 2006.

    14

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    At September 30, 2006, there were 10.6 million shares of AFG Common Stock reserved for issuance under AFG's stock incentive plan. Options generally become exercisable at the rate of 20% per year commencing one year after grant; those granted to non-employee directors of AFG are fully exercisable upon grant. Options expire ten years after the date of grant. Data for stock options issued under AFG's stock incentive plans is presented below:

         

    Average 

    Aggregate 

       

    Average 

    Remaining 

    Intrinsic 

       

    Exercise 

    Contractual 

        Value 

     

       Shares 

       Price 

           Term 

    (in millions)

    Outstanding at January 1, 2006

    6,389,288 

    $28.14 

       
             

      Granted

    971,450 

    $40.51 

       

      Exercised

    (1,027,618)

    $30.97 

       

      Forfeited/Cancelled

      (22,700)

    $35.56 

       

    Outstanding at September 30, 2006

    6,310,420 

    $29.56 

    5.9 years 

    $109.6 

             

    Options exercisable at

           

      September 30, 2006

    3,656,430 

    $27.57 

    4.2 years 

    $ 70.8 

             

    Options and other awards available

      for grant at September 30, 2006

    4,298,366 

    The total intrinsic value of options exercised during the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005 was $13.2 million and $6.6 million, respectively. During the nine months ended September 30, 2006, AFG received $25.6 million in cash and recognized a $4.0 million tax benefit from the exercise of stock options.

    AFG uses the Black-Scholes option pricing model to calculate the "fair value" of its option grants. Expected volatility is based on historical volatility (after consideration of other factors). AFG began using the SEC's simplified method of calculating expected term with its 2006 grants. The fair value of options granted in the first nine months of 2006 and 2005 was $10.03 per share and $9.66 per share, respectively, based on the following assumptions:

     

    2006 

    2005 

    Expected dividend yield

    1-1/2%

    2%

    Expected volatility

    19%

    28%

    Expected term (in years)

    6.5 

    8.4 

    Risk-free rate

    4.6%

    4.3%

         

    Total compensation expense related to stock incentive plans for the third quarter and first nine months of 2006 was $2.6 million and $7.4 million, respectively. Related tax benefits totaled $520,000 for the quarter and $1.5 million for the nine months. Included in these totals are $777,000 for the quarter and $2.2 million for the nine months in compensation expense and $112,000 for the quarter and $347,000 for the nine months in tax benefits related to stock incentive plans of two AFG subsidiaries. As of September 30, 2006, there was a total of $19.5 million of total unrecognized compensation expense related to nonvested stock options granted under AFG's plans. That cost is expected to be recognized over a weighted average of 3.5 years.

    15

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    The following table illustrates the effect on net earnings (loss) (in thousands) and earnings (loss) per share for the third quarter and first nine months of 2005, had compensation cost been recognized and determined based on the "fair values" at grant dates consistent with the method used beginning in 2006.

     

    Third  

    Nine  

     

    Quarter  

    Months  

     

       2005  

        2005  

    Net earnings (loss), as reported

    ($26,430) 

    $118,070  

    Pro forma stock option expense, net of tax

     (1,875

      (5,614

         

    Adjusted net earnings (loss)

    ($28,305

    $112,456  

         

    Earnings (loss) per share (as reported):

       

      Basic

    ($0.34) 

    $1.53  

      Diluted

    ($0.34) 

    $1.51  

         

    Earnings (loss) per share (adjusted):

       

      Basic

    ($0.37) 

    $1.46  

      Diluted

    ($0.36) 

    $1.45  

         
         

  3. Discontinued Operations  In the second quarter of 2006, GAFRI sold Chatham Bars Inn, its resort-hotel property located on Cape Cod for $166 million. In accordance with SFAS No. 144, "Accounting for the Impairment or Disposal of Long-lived Assets," the results of operations of this investment property and the gain on sale are presented as discontinued operations in the Statement of Operations. Operating results for a smaller hotel property that was sold in the fourth quarter of 2005 have been reclassified as discontinued operations to conform to the current year's presentation. Balance Sheet amounts prior to the hotel sale have not been reclassified.

A summary of the hotel operations sold follows (in millions):

Three months ended 

Nine months ended 

 

   September 30,   

  September 30,   

Operations:

2006 

2005 

2006 

2005 

  Revenue

$  -  

$16.9 

$ 3.9 

$33.4 

       

 

  Pretax earnings (loss)

-  

4.0 

(1.0)

5.2 

  Provision (benefit) for income taxes

-  

1.3 

(.3)

1.8 

  Minority interest

   -  

  (.5)

   .1 

  (.6)

  Earnings (loss) from discontinued

 

 

   

    operations

-  

2.2 

(.6)

2.8 

         

Gain on sale, net of tax (*)

   -  

   -  

 25.8 

   -  

Discontinued operations, net of tax

$  -  

$ 2.2 

$25.2 

$ 2.8 

         

  (*) After transaction costs, contingencies, the write-off of certain

      deferred annuity acquisition costs associated with the gain recognition

      and minority interest.

 

  1. Commitments and Contingencies  There have been no significant changes to the matters discussed and referred to in Note O - "Commitments and Contingencies" of AFG's 2005 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

16

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

ITEM 2

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

_________________________________________________________________________________

INDEX TO MD&A

 

Page

 

Page

    Forward-Looking Statements

17 

  Results of Operations

23 

    Overview

17 

    General

23 

    Critical Accounting Policies

18 

    Income Items

23 

    Liquidity and Capital Resources

19 

    Expense Items

27 

      Sources of Funds

19 

  Recent Accounting Standard

28 

      Investments

20 

  Proposed Accounting Standard

29 

      Uncertainties

23 

   

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "estimates", "intends", "plans", "seeks", "could", "may", "should", "will" or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings and investment activities; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate increases; and improved loss experience.

Actual results could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of factors including:

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

OVERVIEW

Financial Condition

AFG is organized as a holding company with almost all of its operations being conducted by subsidiaries. AFG, however, has continuing cash needs for administrative expenses, the payment of principal and interest on borrowings,

17

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

shareholder dividends, and taxes. Therefore, certain analyses are best done on a parent only basis while others are best done on a total enterprise basis. In addition, because most of its businesses are financial in nature, AFG does not prepare its consolidated financial statements using a current-noncurrent format. Consequently, certain traditional ratios and financial analysis tests are not meaningful.

At September 30, 2006, AFG (parent) had approximately $110 million in cash and securities and no amounts borrowed under its bank line of credit.

Results of Operations

Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance and in the sale of retirement annuities and supplemental insurance products.

AFG's net earnings for the third quarter and first nine months of 2006 were $93.6 million ($1.16 per share, diluted) and $317.9 million ($3.96 per share), respectively. These results include significantly higher earnings from AFG's insurance operations compared to the same periods a year earlier. AFG reported a net loss for the third quarter of 2005 of $26.4 million ($.34 per share), which included an aftertax charge of $121.6 million ($1.55 per share) to increase asbestos and environmental reserves ("A&E") within AFG's run-off operations. Net earnings for the first nine months of 2005 were $118.1 million ($1.51 per share).

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A to the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions could change and thus impact amounts reported in the future. The areas where management believes the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements make accounting policies critical are as follows:

For a discussion of these policies, see Management's Discussion and Analysis - "Critical Accounting Policies" in AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

18

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Ratios  AFG's debt to total capital ratio on a consolidated basis is shown below (dollars in millions).

 

September 30,

  December 31,  

 

        2006 

2005 

2004 

Long-term debt

$  924 

$1,000 

$1,106 

Total capital (*)

3,996 

3,703 

3,575 

Ratio of debt to total capital

23.1%

27.0%

30.9%

       

(*)  Includes long-term debt, minority interest and

     shareholders' equity (excluding unrealized gains (losses)

     related to fixed maturity investments).

AFG's ratio of earnings to fixed charges, including annuity benefits as a fixed charge, was 2.49 for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 1.77 (2.20 excluding A&E and other mass tort charges) for the entire year of 2005. Excluding annuity benefits, this ratio was 8.53 and 4.58 (6.60 excluding the A&E and other mass tort charges), respectively. Although the ratio excluding interest on annuities is not required or encouraged to be disclosed under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, it is presented because interest credited to annuity policyholder accounts is not always considered a borrowing cost for an insurance company.

Sources of Funds

Parent Holding Company Liquidity  Management believes AFG has sufficient resources to meet its liquidity requirements. If funds generated from operations, including dividends and tax payments from subsidiaries, are insufficient to meet fixed charges in any period, AFG would be required to utilize parent company cash and marketable securities (approximately $110 million at September 30, 2006) or generate cash through borrowings, sales of other assets, or similar transactions.

In March 2006, AFG and GAFRI replaced their existing credit agreements with a new five-year revolving credit facility under which they can borrow a combined $500 million. AFG and GAFRI have agreed not to borrow more than $325 million and $200 million, respectively, under the credit facility and AFG has agreed to guarantee amounts borrowed by GAFRI. Amounts borrowed bear interest at rates ranging from 0.5% to 1.25% over LIBOR based on AFG's credit rating. No amounts were outstanding under this agreement at September 30, 2006.

Under a currently effective shelf registration statement, AFG can offer additional equity or debt securities, including 2.3 million shares of common stock under an equity distribution agreement with UBS Securities LLC. The shelf registration provides AFG with greater flexibility to access the capital markets from time to time as market and other conditions permit.

During the first nine months of 2006, AFG repurchased $43.5 million of its 7-1/8% Debentures due 2009 for $45.6 million in cash.

Subsidiary Liquidity  As discussed above under "Parent Company Liquidity", in March 2006, AFG and GAFRI replaced their existing credit agreements. In addition, GAFRI can offer approximately $250 million in additional equity or debt securities under a currently effective shelf registration.

During the first nine months of 2006, GAFRI repurchased $66.4 million of its 6-7/8% Senior Notes due 2008 for $68.7 million in cash.

19

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

The liquidity requirements of AFG's insurance subsidiaries relate primarily to the liabilities associated with their products as well as operating costs and expenses, payments of dividends and taxes to AFG and contributions of capital to their subsidiaries. Historically, cash flows from premiums and investment income have provided more than sufficient funds to meet these requirements without requiring a sale of investments or contributions from AFG. Funds received in excess of cash requirements are generally invested in additional marketable securities. In addition, the insurance subsidiaries generally hold a significant amount of highly liquid, short-term investments.

The excess cash flow of AFG's property and casualty group allows it to extend the duration of its investment portfolio somewhat beyond that of its claim reserves.

In GAFRI's annuity business, where profitability is largely dependent on earning a "spread" between invested assets and annuity liabilities, the duration of investments is generally maintained close to that of liabilities. In a rising interest rate environment, significant protection from withdrawals exists in the form of temporary and permanent surrender charges on GAFRI's annuity products. With declining rates, GAFRI receives some protection (from spread compression) due to the ability to lower crediting rates, subject to guaranteed minimums.

AFG believes its insurance subsidiaries maintain sufficient liquidity to pay claims and benefits and operating expenses, as well as meet commitments in the event of unforeseen events such as reserve deficiencies, inadequate premium rates or reinsurer insolvencies.

Investments  AFG's investment portfolio at September 30, 2006, contained $14.4 billion in "Fixed maturities" classified as available for sale and $716 million in "Other stocks," all carried at fair value with unrealized gains and losses reported as a separate component of shareholders' equity on an after-tax basis. At September 30, 2006, AFG had pretax net unrealized losses of $49.3 million on fixed maturities and pretax net unrealized gains of $80.5 million on other stocks.

Approximately 94% of the fixed maturities held by AFG at September 30, 2006, were rated "investment grade" (credit rating of AAA to BBB) by nationally recognized rating agencies. Investment grade securities generally bear lower yields and lower degrees of risk than those that are unrated and noninvestment grade. Management believes that a high quality investment portfolio should generate a stable and predictable investment return.

Since fixed maturities and stocks are carried at fair value in the balance sheet, there is virtually no effect on financial condition upon the sale and ultimate realization of unrealized gains and losses.

20

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Summarized information for the unrealized gains and losses recorded in AFG's Balance Sheet at September 30, 2006, is shown in the following table (dollars in millions). Approximately $154 million of available for sale "Fixed maturities" had no unrealized gains or losses at September 30, 2006.

 

Securities 

Securities 

 

With    

With    

 

Unrealized 

Unrealized 

 

   Gains   

  Losses   

Available for sale Fixed Maturities

   

  Fair value of securities

$5,086 

$9,162 

  Amortized cost of securities

$4,940 

$9,357 

  Gross unrealized gain (loss)

$  146 

($  195)

  Fair value as % of amortized cost

103%

98%

  Number of security positions

1,284 

1,461 

  Number individually exceeding

   

    $2 million gain or loss

  Concentration of gains (losses) by type or

   

    industry (exceeding 5% of unrealized):

   

      Mortgage-backed securities

$21.6 

($84.2)

      Banks, savings and credit institutions

16.4 

(18.0)

      U.S. Government and government agencies

3.0 

(16.1)

      Insurance companies

8.9 

(10.8)

      State and municipal

7.1 

(10.1)

      Gas and electric services

16.5 

(10.1)

      Air transportation and courier services

12.0 

(0.4)

  Percentage rated investment grade

91%

96%

     

The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG's available for sale fixed maturity securities at September 30, 2006, based on their fair values. Asset-backed securities and other securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.

 

Securities 

Securities 

 

With    

With    

 

Unrealized 

Unrealized 

 

   Gains   

  Losses   

Maturity

   

  One year or less

5%    

1%    

  After one year through five years

28     

25     

  After five years through ten years

39     

29     

  After ten years

 11     

  4     

 

83     

59     

  Mortgage-backed securities

 17     

 41     

 

100%    

100%    

21

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

AFG realized aggregate losses of $6.6 million during the first nine months of 2006 on $149.1 million in sales of fixed maturity securities (five issues/issuers) that had individual unrealized losses greater than $500,000 at December 31, 2005. These securities were "AAA" rated mortgage-backed securities that decreased in fair value by an aggregate of $3.0 million from year-end 2005 to the sale date due to an increase in the general level of interest rates.

Although AFG has the ability to continue holding its investments with unrealized losses, its intent to hold them may change due to deterioration in the issuers' creditworthiness, decisions to lessen exposure to a particular issuer or industry, asset/liability management decisions, market movements, changes in views about appropriate asset allocation or the desire to offset taxable realized gains.

The table below (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturity securities by dollar amount.

       
     

Fair 

 

Aggregate 

Aggregate 

Value as 

 

Fair 

Unrealized 

% of Cost 

 

    Value 

Gain (Loss) 

    Basis 

Fixed Maturities at September 30, 2006

     
       

Securities with unrealized gains:

     

  Exceeding $500,000 (64 issues)

$  617 

$ 54 

110%

  Less than $500,000 (1,220 issues)

 4,469 

  92 

102 

 

$5,086 

$146 

103%

    

     

Securities with unrealized losses:

     

  Exceeding $500,000 (84 issues)

$1,868 

($ 70)

96%

  Less than $500,000 (1,377 issues)

 7,294 

(125)

98 

 

$9,162 

($195)

98%

    

     

The following table summarizes (dollars in millions) the unrealized loss for all fixed maturity securities with unrealized losses by issuer quality and length of time those securities have been in an unrealized loss position.

     

Fair 

 

Aggregate 

Aggregate 

Value as 

 

Fair 

Unrealized 

% of Cost 

 

    Value 

Gain (Loss) 

    Basis 

Fixed Maturities with Unrealized

     

  Losses at September 30, 2006      

     

    

     

Investment grade with losses for:

     

  One year or less (582 issues)

$3,381 

($ 40)

99%

  Greater than one year (787 issues)

 5,372 

(143)

97 

 

$8,753 

($183)

98%

    

     

Non-investment grade with losses for:

     

  One year or less (58 issues)

$  200 

($  7)

97%

  Greater than one year (34 issues)

   209 

(   5)

98 

 

$  409 

($ 12)

97%

    

     

When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be "other than temporary," a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (accounted for as a realized loss) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced. The determination of whether unrealized losses are "other than temporary" requires judgment based on subjective as well as objective factors. A listing of factors considered and resources used is contained in the discussion of "Investments" under Management's Discussion and Analysis in AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

22

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Based on its analysis, management believes (i) AFG will recover its cost basis in the securities with unrealized losses and (ii) that AFG has the ability and intent to hold the securities until they mature or recover in value. Should either of these beliefs change with regard to a particular security, a charge for impairment would likely be required. While it is not possible to accurately predict if or when a specific security will become impaired, charges for other than temporary impairment could be material to results of operations in a future period. Management believes it is not likely that future impairment charges will have a significant effect on AFG's liquidity.

Uncertainties  Management believes that the areas posing the greatest risk of material loss are the adequacy of its insurance reserves and American Premier's contingencies arising out of its former operations. See Management's Discussion and Analysis - "Uncertainties" in AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

General  Results of operations as shown in the accompanying financial statements are prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

AFG reported operating earnings before income taxes of $157.3 million for the third quarter of 2006 compared to an operating loss before income taxes of $28.3 million in the 2005 third quarter. Results for the 2005 quarter included $189 million in pretax charges resulting from strengthening A&E and other mass tort reserves within AFG's runoff operations, partially offset by a $30.9 million pretax gain on the sale of coal assets. Excluding these items, a $35.8 million improvement in property and casualty underwriting results and a $19.1 million increase in investment income were partially offset by a $13.2 million decline in realized gains on securities.

Excluding the third quarter 2005 A&E charge and gain on the sale of coal assets, nine-month pretax operating earnings improved $91.4 million compared to 2005 as a $76.6 million improvement in property and casualty underwriting results and a $57.8 million increase in investment income were partially offset by lower realized gains and lower earnings in GAFRI's supplemental insurance operations during the first half of the year.

Property and Casualty Insurance - Underwriting  AFG reports its Specialty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related business and commercial automobile, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes executive and professional liability, umbrella and excess liability and excess and surplus, (iii) Specialty financial, which includes fidelity and surety bonds and collateral protection, and (iv) California workers' compensation.

Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the company's performance. See Note C - "Segments of Operations" for the detail of AFG's operating profit by significant business segment.

Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio, which is a sum of the ratios of underwriting losses, loss adjustment expenses and underwriting expenses to premiums. A combined ratio under 100% is indicative of an underwriting profit. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, other income or federal income taxes.

23

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Premiums and combined ratios for AFG's Specialty property and casualty insurance operations were as follows (dollars in millions):

 

Three months ended 

Nine months ended  

 

    September 30,   

    September 30,   

 

2006 

2005 

2006 

2005 

Gross Written Premiums (GAAP)

       

Specialty:

       

  Property and transportation

$  637.3 

$  496.8 

$1,355.7 

$1,087.1 

  Specialty casualty

371.3 

359.6 

1,113.3 

1,080.7 

  Specialty financial

142.8 

133.1 

396.4 

367.6 

  California workers' compensation

69.7 

93.5 

229.9 

289.8 

  Other

      .3 

    (2.5)

      -  

     1.2 

    Total Specialty

$1,221.4 

$1,080.5 

$3,095.3 

$2,826.4 

   

       

Net Written Premiums (GAAP)

       

Specialty:

       

  Property and transportation

$  332.1 

$  291.0 

$  830.9 

$  728.8 

  Specialty casualty

237.6 

192.3 

645.6 

567.4 

  Specialty financial

115.7 

107.9 

313.1 

294.7 

  California workers' compensation

65.8 

84.2 

217.0 

260.5 

  Other

    17.7 

    16.4 

    57.3 

    48.4 

    Total Specialty

$  768.9 

$  691.8 

$2,063.9 

$1,899.8 

   

       

Combined Ratios (GAAP)(a)

       

Specialty:

       

  Property and transportation (b)

87.4%

98.1%

84.7%

88.7%

  Specialty casualty

78.7 

89.4 

85.3 

93.9 

  Specialty financial (c)

121.8 

110.1 

107.5 

107.8 

  California workers' compensation

63.6 

66.7 

75.7 

75.5 

  Other

116.6 

110.6 

105.5 

104.6 

    Total Specialty (d)

88.7%

93.3%

88.1%

91.8%

         

(a)

AFG's aggregate combined ratio, including other (primarily runoff) lines, was 88.9% and 120.6% for the quarter ended September 30, 2006 and 2005 and 88.4% and 101.8% for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005, respectively. The aggregate ratio includes 27.5 points and 10.1 points, respectively, for the three and nine month periods of 2005 relating to the A&E charge.

(b)

Includes the effect of hurricane losses for the 2005 three and nine month periods of 10.8 points and 4.6 points, respectively.

(c)

Includes the effect of hurricane losses for the 2005 three and nine month periods of 7.1 points and 2.4 points, respectively.

(d)

Includes the effect of hurricane losses of 6.2% and 2.3%, respectively, for the three and nine month periods of 2005.

   

Net written premiums for the specialty insurance operations increased 11% for the third quarter and 9% for the nine months compared to the same periods in 2005. Significant premium growth from the Property and transportation and Specialty casualty groups were partially offset by a decline in the California workers' compensation premiums. The specialty insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $82.2 million in the 2006 third quarter, $39.1 million higher than the 2005 quarter. The combined ratio was 88.7%, 4.6 points better than in the 2005 third quarter, which included approximately $40.6 million (6.2 points) of catastrophe losses principally from hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

24

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Underwriting profit for the first nine months of 2006 was $229 million, 56% above the 2005 period, reflecting premium growth, lower catastrophe losses, and the positive impact of favorable reserve development. These 2006 results include $22.6 million (1.2 points) of catastrophe losses compared to $48.4 million (2.7 points) in the same 2005 period. Net written premiums were 9% above the 2005 period.

Property and transportation net written premiums for the third quarter and nine months of 2006 increased 14% over each of the 2005 periods due primarily to growth in the property and inland marine operations and new premium volume from the 2005 acquisition of Farmers Crop Insurance Alliance. The growth in net written premiums was less than the gross written premium growth due to the effect of crop reinsurance programs. This group's combined ratio for the 2005 third quarter included 10.8 points of hurricane losses. The 2006 third quarter underwriting results benefited from solid underwriting profit recorded within the crop insurance division and the absence of any significant catastrophe losses during the quarter. The combined ratio for the first nine months of 2006 improved 4.0 points compared to the 2005 period as underwriting results for 2006 include 2.6 points of catastrophe losses compared to 5.9 points in the same period in 2005. Nearly all of the lines of business in this group continue to report excellent profitability with continuing favorable prior year reserve development. The 2006 nine-month period results include 4.3 points of favorable reserve development compared to 2.1 points for the same 2005 period.

Due to recent upward revisions in industry models of correlated catastrophe exposure associated with writing both workers' compensation and excess property coverage in California, AFG decided to stop writing most of its earthquake-exposed excess property coverage in California beginning in April 2006. This excess property business had net written premiums of $17 million in 2005. Prior to this action, AFG's excess property exposure to a catastrophic earthquake that models indicate could occur once in every 500 years (a "500-year event") was approximately 10% of AFG's shareholders' equity. Once the existing excess property policies expire in 2007, AFG's excess property exposure to a California earthquake 500-year event will be reduced to less than 1% of AFG's equity.

Specialty casualty net written premiums for the 2006 third quarter and nine-month period were 24% and 14% higher than in the respective 2005 periods due primarily to volume growth and higher premium retention within several of the group's businesses as well as third quarter 2006 changes to reinsurance agreements within the specialized program business line, which resulted in the recapture of $26 million in premiums previously ceded to reinsurers. This group's combined ratio improved 10.7 points for the third quarter, reflecting improvement across all businesses in the group. Results for the 2006 quarter included about 4.8 points of favorable reserve development whereas the prior year period included 1.4 points of unfavorable reserve development. Through the first nine months of this year, this group's combined ratio has improved 8.6 points compared with the same prior year period.

Specialty financial net written premiums for the three and nine month periods of 2006 increased 7% and 6%, respectively, above the 2005 periods reflecting premium growth principally in the surety and financial institutions businesses. The group experienced disappointing results in the 2006 third quarter resulting from losses within the automobile residual value business ("RVI"), which is in run-off. These losses were primarily attributable to lower than expected proceeds from the sale (at auction) of certain luxury cars and sport utility

25

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

vehicles at lease-end. Excluding the effect of the RVI business, this group's third quarter combined ratio was 88%, as the group's other operations are generating underwriting profits.

California workers' compensation net written premiums for the third quarter and first nine months of 2006 were 22% and 17% below the 2005 periods, reflecting the effect of significantly lower rates, partly offset by new volume growth. This business continued to report excellent profitability in the 2006 third quarter with a 3.1 point improvement in the combined ratio compared to the 2005 quarter. This business experienced $16 million of favorable prior year reserve development in the quarter, compared to $9 million in the 2005 third quarter. The underwriting results reflect the effects of the California workers' compensation reforms that have resulted in lower workers' compensation costs for employers and lower premium levels. However, due to the long-tail nature of this business, reserving is somewhat conservative until a higher percentage of claims have been paid and the ultimate impact of reforms can be determined.

Asbestos and Environmental and Other Mass Tort Reserve Charges  As a result of a comprehensive study of its asbestos and environmental exposures relating primarily to the run-off operations of its property and casualty group, AFG recorded a 2005 third quarter pre-tax charge of $169 million, net of $32 million in reinsurance recoverables. This charge resulted in an increase in asbestos reserves of $124 million and environmental reserves of $45 million. In connection with the review of A&E reserves in 2005, AFG reviewed its other mass tort exposures and recorded a $10 million pre-tax charge. Management expects to conduct another study in 2007.

Life, Accident and Health Premiums and Benefits  The decrease in life, accident and health premiums and benefits is due primarily to the January 2006 sale of Great American Life of Puerto Rico ("GAPR"). Excluding the effect of the sale, premiums increased $18.5 million for the third quarter and $23.4 million for the nine months and benefits increased $6.6 million for the third quarter and $17.7 million for the nine months of 2006 compared to the 2005 periods due primarily to the August 2006 acquisition of Ceres. Life, accident and health benefits for the third quarter of 2006 were reduced by $3.4 million due to favorable development in GAFRI's Medicare supplement business. For the nine months, this favorable development was more than offset by an increase in loss experience in GAFRI's supplemental insurance business during the first half of 2006. GAFRI expects the supplemental insurance loss ratio to decrease as a result of rate increases and the acquisition of Ceres. The acquisition broadens GAFRI's distribution in both the independent agent and captive agent channels. Prior to the Ceres acquisition, GAFRI's supplemental insurance products were sold through relatively few national marketing organizations.

Investment Income  The increase in investment income for the third quarter and nine months of 2006 compared to the 2005 periods reflects a 7% increase in average cash and investments for the quarter and nine months.

26

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Realized Gains (Losses)  Realized capital gains have been an important part of the return on investments. Individual assets are sold creating gains and losses as market opportunities exist. Realized gains for 2006 includes a $23.6 million pretax gain in the first quarter on the sale of AFG's interest in The Cincinnati Reds.

Realized gains (losses) on securities include provisions for other than temporary impairment of securities still held as follows: third quarter of 2006 and 2005 - $7.1 million and $3.9 million; nine months of 2006 and 2005 - $12.9 million and $11.5 million, respectively.

Real Estate Operations  AFG's subsidiaries are engaged in a variety of real estate operations including hotels, apartments, office buildings and recreational facilities; they also own several parcels of land. Revenues and expenses of these operations, including gains and losses on disposal, are included in AFG's Statement of Operations as shown below (in millions).

 

Three months ended

Nine months ended 

 

   September 30,  

  September 30,   

 

2006 

2005

2006 

2005 

Other income

$20.7 

$48.9

$65.8 

$91.1 

Other operating and general expenses

18.7 

14.9

50.2 

43.8 

Interest charges on borrowed money

.9 

.4

1.6 

1.4 

Minority interest expense, net

.1 

.1

2.3 

1.0 

         

Income from real estate operations for 2005 includes a third quarter pretax gain of $30.9 million on the sale of coal reserves. Other income also includes net pretax gains on the sale of other real estate assets of $1.1 million in the third quarter and $14.2 million in the first nine months of 2006 and $1.1 million and $10.1 million for the 2005 periods.

Real Estate Operations - Discontinued  In June 2006, GAFRI sold Chatham Bars Inn, a resort hotel located on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, for $166 million. After sales expenses, contingencies and the write-off of certain deferred acquisition costs on annuities associated with the gain recognition, GAFRI recognized a pre-tax gain of approximately $48.7 million. The operating results and gain on the sale of Chatham are included in discontinued operations in the Statement of Operations. See Note G - "Discontinued Operations."

Fourth Quarter Real Estate Sales  AFG has entered into a definitive agreement to sell certain of its New York real estate assets and expects to record a pretax gain of approximately $45 million in the 2006 fourth quarter. In addition, on October 3, 2006, an 80%-owned subsidiary sold an apartment building and expects to recognize a pretax gain of approximately $8 million.

Annuity Benefits  Annuity benefits reflect amounts accrued on annuity policyholders' funds accumulated. On its deferred annuities (annuities in the accumulation phase), GAFRI generally credits interest to policyholders' accounts at their current stated interest rates. Furthermore, for "two-tier" deferred annuities (annuities under which a higher interest amount can be earned if a policy is annuitized rather than surrendered), GAFRI accrues additional reserves for (i) persistency and premium bonuses and (ii) excess benefits expected to be paid for future deaths and annuitizations. Changes in crediting rates, actual surrender, death and annuitization experience or modifications in actuarial assumptions can affect these additional reserves.

27

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Annuity benefits for the third quarter and nine months of 2006 increased compared to the 2005 periods as the effect of internal growth and the acquisition of Old Standard Life fixed annuity business were partially offset by lower average effective crediting rates and the sale of GAPR.

Significant changes in projected investment yields could result in charges (or credits) to earnings in the period the projections are modified.

Annuity and Supplemental Insurance Acquisition Expenses  Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses include amortization of annuity, supplemental insurance and run-off life business deferred policy acquisition costs ("DPAC") as well as a portion of commissions on sales of insurance products. Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses also include amortization of the present value of future profits of businesses acquired. The $6.7 million and $2.2 million increases in annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses for the third quarter and nine months of 2006, respectively, compared to the 2005 periods reflects the effect of the Ceres and Old Standard Life acquisitions and growth in the annuity and supplemental insurance businesses, partially offset by the January 2006 sale of GAPR.

The vast majority of GAFRI's DPAC asset relates to its fixed annuity, variable annuity and run-off life insurance lines of business. Unanticipated spread compression, decreases in the stock market, and adverse mortality experience could lead to write-offs of DPAC in the future.

Interest Expense  Changes in interest expense result from fluctuations in market rates as well as changes in borrowings. AFG has generally financed its borrowings on a long-term basis, which has resulted in higher current costs.

Interest expense decreased $1.7 million (8%) for the third quarter and $5.7 million (10%) for the nine months due primarily to the retirement of debt during the first nine months of 2006 and late 2005.

Other Operating and General Expenses  Other operating and general expenses for the third quarter of 2005 include a $9.5 million pretax charge to increase reserves related to environmental liabilities at GAFRI's former manufacturing operations. Other operating and general expenses also include $7.2 million and $1 million in losses on retirement of debt in the first nine months of 2006 and 2005, respectively.

Income Taxes  Income tax expense for the first nine months of 2006 reflects a $8.7 million benefit in the second quarter related to the favorable resolution of certain tax issues.

Recent Account Standards

Income Taxes  In June 2006, the FASB issued Interpretation No. 48, "Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes (an interpretation of FASB Statement No. 109)" ("FIN 48") which is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2006. FIN 48 sets forth criteria for recognition and measurement of tax positions taken or expected to be taken in a tax return. FIN 48 requires that companies recognize the impact of a tax position if that position is more likely than not of being sustained on audit, based on the technical merits of the position. FIN 48 also provides guidance on derecognition, classification, interest, penalties, accounting in interim periods and disclosure. Management is currently evaluating the impact of adopting this interpretation.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Proposed Accounting Standard

Convertible Notes  The FASB has proposed an amendment to SFAS No. 128, "Earnings per Share." Currently, SFAS No. 128 allows companies issuing securities that can be settled in cash or stock (such as AFG's convertible notes) to exclude the issuable shares from the calculation of diluted earnings per share when there is a stated intent and ability to deliver cash in lieu of stock upon settlement or conversion. The proposed amendment would require companies to assume settlement in stock (despite the ability and intent to settle in cash) and include those shares in the calculation of diluted earnings per share. Should the FASB proposal be adopted as proposed, AFG anticipates that it will amend the convertible note indenture to eliminate the option to settle the accreted value of the notes in shares, and thereby mitigate the proposal's impact on dilution.

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

 

ITEM 3

Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure of Market Risk

As of September 30, 2006, there were no material changes to the information provided in Item 7A - "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure of Market Risk" of AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

ITEM 4

Controls and Procedures

AFG's management, with participation of its Co-Chief Executive Officers and its principal financial officer, has evaluated AFG's disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rule 13a-15) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, AFG's Co-CEOs and principal financial officer concluded that these disclosure controls and procedures were effective. On August 7, 2006, Great American Financial Resources acquired Ceres Group, Inc. Ceres has been excluded from management's assessment of internal control over financial reporting.

In the ordinary course of business, AFG and its subsidiaries routinely enhance their information systems by either upgrading current systems or implementing new systems. There has been no change in AFG's business processes and procedures during the third fiscal quarter of 2006 that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, AFG's internal controls over financial reporting.

29

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

 

PART II

OTHER INFORMATION

ITEM 2

Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities  Under AFG's shareholder-approved Stock Option Plan, 17,288 shares of AFG Common Stock were tendered in connection with the exercise of stock options in the third quarter of 2006 (13,116 at $46.33 in August and 4,172 at $47.93 in September).

ITEM 6

Exhibits

Number

Exhibit Description

   

 12

Computation of ratios of earnings to fixed charges.

   

 31(a)

Certification of the Co-Chief Executive Officer pursuant

 

to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

   

 31(b)

Certification of the Co-Chief Executive Officer pursuant

 

to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

   

 31(c)

Certification of the Chief Financial Officer pursuant to

 

section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

   

 32

Certification of the Co-Chief Executive Officers and Chief

 

Financial Officer pursuant to section 906 of the Sarbanes-

 

Oxley Act of 2002.

 

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

 

Signature

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, American Financial Group, Inc. has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned duly authorized.

 

American Financial Group, Inc.

   
   
   

November 8, 2006

BY: s/Keith A. Jensen               

 

    Keith A. Jensen

 

    Senior Vice President

 

    (principal financial and

 

      accounting officer)

30