What Happened?

Shares of vacation ownership company Marriott Vacations (NYSE: VAC) jumped 15.7% in the afternoon session after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed analyst expectations and provided an upbeat financial forecast for 2026. 

The vacation ownership company posted adjusted earnings of $1.86 per share for the quarter, comfortably beating the market's forecast of $1.71. Revenue of $1.32 billion also came in ahead of estimates. More importantly, the company issued strong guidance for 2026. Management projects adjusted earnings per share of $7.43 at the midpoint, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Additionally, the forecast for adjusted EBITDA, a key measure of profitability, also topped estimates, signaling confidence in the company's outlook.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Marriott Vacations’s shares are quite volatile and have had 19 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Marriott Vacations and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 7.6% on the news that the Trump administration's announcement of new global tariffs, reignited trade policy uncertainty. 

The move came swiftly after the Supreme Court ruled the previous week that the president could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for such duties, a decision that had initially sent markets higher. However, the administration invoked a different authority, the Trade Act of 1974, to impose a 15% global tariff for up to 150 days. The rapid reimposition of trade barriers creates significant uncertainty for companies across multiple sectors that depend on international supply chains and global trade. Investors are now weighing the potential impact of these new duties on corporate earnings and broader economic activity.

Marriott Vacations is up 16.1% since the beginning of the year, but at $68.29 per share, it is still trading 20% below its 52-week high of $85.38 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Marriott Vacations’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $402.45.

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