Jack in the Box’s fourth quarter was met with a negative market reaction following results that missed Wall Street’s expectations for both revenue and earnings. Management attributed the underperformance to persistent challenges in guest traffic, elevated commodity costs—especially for beef—and operational issues in key markets like Chicago. CEO Lance Tucker described the period as “choppy” and noted that while there were some bright spots, particularly from new product launches tied to the company’s 75th anniversary, these were not enough to offset broader declines in same-store sales and profit margins.
Is now the time to buy JACK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Jack in the Box (JACK) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $349.5 million vs analyst estimates of $367.1 million (25.5% year-on-year decline, 4.8% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $1 vs analyst expectations of $1.11 (9.6% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $68.18 million vs analyst estimates of $69.28 million (19.5% margin, 1.6% miss)
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $232.5 million at the midpoint, in line with analyst expectations
- Operating Margin: 13.3%, down from 15.8% in the same quarter last year
- Locations: 2,128 at quarter end, down from 2,779 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales fell 6.7% year on year (-0.5% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $331.4 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Jack in the Box’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Alex Slagle (Jefferies): asked about the initial sales response to 75th anniversary promotions and weather-related impacts. CEO Lance Tucker explained that January saw meaningful improvements, with sales trends improving by several hundred basis points, although weather disruptions offset some gains.
- Jeffrey Bernstein (Barclays): inquired about franchisee margin pressures and what support the company might offer. Tucker stated that while four-wall margins are under pressure, especially from beef inflation, the company is focused on supply chain efficiencies and selective assistance, but not blanket relief.
- Sarah Senatore (Bank of America): questioned the comp sales gap between company and franchise locations. Tucker attributed the difference mainly to greater digital offer adoption by company stores, while franchisees are more selective with promotions.
- Karen Holthouse (Citi): sought details on the cost and scope of the restaurant refresh program. Tucker described the mini refresh strategy as a low-cost, curb appeal initiative, with a longer-term, more comprehensive remodel program to follow—partially funded by the company.
- Jim Sanderson (Northcoast Research): asked about the performance of the Hispanic consumer segment and the impact of technology upgrades. Tucker reported little meaningful improvement in Hispanic guest trends and said the company is just beginning to realize efficiencies from new in-store technology systems.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) whether menu innovation and value promotions can sustainably improve guest traffic, (2) if operational fixes in Chicago and other challenged regions translate into margin stabilization, and (3) the pace and impact of the restaurant refresh program as it expands into larger markets. The trajectory of commodity costs, especially beef, will also be a critical factor influencing results.
Jack in the Box currently trades at $17.26, down from $22.01 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
The Best Stocks for High-Quality Investors
If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.
Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
