Healthcare services company Agilon Health (NYSE: AGL) reported Q4 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with sales up 3.1% year on year to $1.57 billion. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $1.37 billion was less impressive, coming in 12.6% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0.46 per share was 69.1% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy agilon health? Find out by accessing our full research report, it’s free.
agilon health (AGL) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.57 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.46 billion (3.1% year-on-year growth, 7.2% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): -$0.46 vs analyst expectations of -$0.27 (69.1% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$141.9 million (-9% margin, 69% year-on-year decline)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $1.37 billion at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $1.57 billion
- Operating Margin: -12.3%, down from -7.1% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow was -$23.51 million, down from $13.15 million in the same quarter last year
- Customers: 511,000, up from 503,000 in the previous quarter
- Market Capitalization: $163.5 million
Company Overview
Transforming how doctors care for seniors by shifting financial incentives from volume to outcomes, agilon health (NYSE: AGL) provides a platform that helps primary care physicians transition to value-based care models for Medicare patients through long-term partnerships and global capitation arrangements.
Revenue Growth
Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Thankfully, agilon health’s 37.2% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was incredible. Its growth beat the average healthcare company and shows its offerings resonate with customers, a helpful starting point for our analysis.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within healthcare, a half-decade historical view may miss recent innovations or disruptive industry trends. agilon health’s annualized revenue growth of 17.2% over the last two years is below its five-year trend, but we still think the results suggest healthy demand. 
We can dig further into the company’s revenue dynamics by analyzing its number of customers, which reached 511,000 in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, agilon health’s customer base averaged 5.8% year-on-year growth. Because this number is lower than its revenue growth, we can see the average customer spent more money each year on the company’s products and services. 
This quarter, agilon health reported modest year-on-year revenue growth of 3.1% but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 7.2%. Company management is currently guiding for a 10.6% year-on-year decline in sales next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 1.5% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last two years. This projection doesn't excite us and implies its products and services will see some demand headwinds. At least the company is tracking well in other measures of financial health.
The 1999 book Gorilla Game predicted Microsoft and Apple would dominate tech before it happened. Its thesis? Identify the platform winners early. Today, enterprise software companies embedding generative AI are becoming the new gorillas. a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next.
Operating Margin
Operating margin is one of the best measures of profitability because it tells us how much money a company takes home after subtracting all core expenses, like marketing and R&D.
agilon health’s high expenses have contributed to an average operating margin of negative 7.2% over the last five years. Unprofitable healthcare companies require extra attention because they could get caught swimming naked when the tide goes out.
On the plus side, agilon health’s operating margin rose by 13.7 percentage points over the last five years, as its sales growth gave it operating leverage. Zooming into its more recent performance, however, we can see the company’s margin has decreased by 2.4 percentage points on a two-year basis. Given its business quality, we’re optimistic that agilon health can correct course and return to expansion.
This quarter, agilon health generated a negative 12.3% operating margin.
Earnings Per Share
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.
agilon health’s earnings losses deepened over the last five years as its EPS dropped 38.7% annually. We’ll keep a close eye on the company as diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences.
In Q4, agilon health reported EPS of negative $0.46, down from negative $0.26 in the same quarter last year. This print missed analysts’ estimates. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects agilon health to improve its earnings losses. Analysts forecast its full-year EPS of negative $0.95 will advance to negative $0.39.
Key Takeaways from agilon health’s Q4 Results
We were impressed by agilon health’s optimistic EBITDA guidance for next quarter, which blew past analysts’ expectations. We were also excited its revenue outperformed Wall Street’s estimates by a wide margin. On the other hand, its full-year revenue guidance missed and its revenue guidance for next quarter fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a softer quarter. The stock traded up 2.9% to $0.49 immediately following the results.
So do we think agilon health is an attractive buy at the current price? What happened in the latest quarter matters, but not as much as longer-term business quality and valuation, when deciding whether to invest in this stock. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
