Education company Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) reported revenue ahead of Wall Street’s expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 19.7% year on year to $142.9 million. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $585 million at the midpoint came in 5.4% above analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $0.40 per share was 17.6% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Lincoln Educational (LINC) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $142.9 million vs analyst estimates of $133.6 million (19.7% year-on-year growth, 6.9% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.40 vs analyst estimates of $0.34 (17.6% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $29.08 million vs analyst estimates of $27.53 million (20.4% margin, 5.6% beat)
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $0.69 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 9.5%
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $74 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $69.8 million
- Operating Margin: 12.4%, up from 9.2% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 17.5%, up from 4.6% in the same quarter last year
- Enrolled Students: 17,046, up 1,908 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $948.4 million
“There are three major drivers behind our exceptional finish to 2025 and our outlook for continued double-digit growth for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2026,” said Scott Shaw, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Company Overview
Established in 1946, Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) is a provider of specialized technical training in the United States, offering career-oriented programs to provide practical skills required in the workforce.
Revenue Growth
A company’s long-term performance is an indicator of its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. Over the last five years, Lincoln Educational grew its sales at a 12.1% compounded annual growth rate. Though this growth is acceptable on an absolute basis, we need to see more than just topline growth for the consumer discretionary sector, which can display significant earnings volatility. This means our bar for the sector is particularly high, reflecting the non-essential and hit-driven nature of the products and services offered. Additionally, five-year CAGR starts around Covid, when revenue was depressed then rebounded.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new product or trend. Lincoln Educational’s annualized revenue growth of 17.1% over the last two years is above its five-year trend, which is encouraging. 
Lincoln Educational also discloses its number of enrolled students, which reached 17,046 in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, Lincoln Educational’s enrolled students averaged 13.1% year-on-year growth. Because this number is lower than its revenue growth during the same period, we can see the company’s monetization has risen. 
This quarter, Lincoln Educational reported year-on-year revenue growth of 19.7%, and its $142.9 million of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 6.9%.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 7.6% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last two years. This projection is underwhelming and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds.
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Operating Margin
Lincoln Educational’s operating margin has risen over the last 12 months and averaged 4.7% over the last two years. The company’s higher efficiency is a breath of fresh air, but its suboptimal cost structure means it still sports inadequate profitability for a consumer discretionary business.
This quarter, Lincoln Educational generated an operating margin profit margin of 12.4%, up 3.3 percentage points year on year. This increase was a welcome development and shows it was more efficient.
Earnings Per Share
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.
Sadly for Lincoln Educational, its EPS declined by 15.5% annually over the last five years while its revenue grew by 12.1%. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.
In Q4, Lincoln Educational reported EPS of $0.40, up from $0.22 in the same quarter last year. This print easily cleared analysts’ estimates, and shareholders should be content with the results. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Lincoln Educational’s full-year EPS of $0.63 to grow 21%.
Key Takeaways from Lincoln Educational’s Q4 Results
We were impressed by Lincoln Educational’s optimistic full-year revenue guidance, which blew past analysts’ expectations. We were also glad its revenue outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. Zooming out, we think this was a good print with some key areas of upside. The stock remained flat at $29.99 immediately following the results.
Lincoln Educational put up rock-solid earnings, but one quarter doesn’t necessarily make the stock a buy. Let’s see if this is a good investment. We think that the latest quarter is only one piece of the longer-term business quality puzzle. Quality, when combined with valuation, can help determine if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
