Wolters Kluwer: A Majority of Leading US Economists Surveyed Expect Higher Government Deficit Under Trump Administration

Economists expect another rate cut of 25bps before the end of 2024

Wolters Kluwer has published the November 2024 edition of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds the panel’s 47 leading economists forecasting a newly uncertain course for future Fed rate cuts. This is largely driven by the Republicans’ surprising sweep of the U.S. election, with 79% of economists in agreement that the government deficit will be higher under a Trump Administration than a Harris Administration.

Since 1976, Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators has been the leading monthly forecast sourced from an expert panel of economists that are employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies.

Highlights include:

• The consensus forecast expects one more rate cut equaling 25 basis points (bps) in December. Economists also predict 108bps of FFR cuts in 2025.
• Economists place the probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months at only 27%.
• The consensus forecast calls for real GDP growth of 2.7%. Additionally, economists no longer anticipate any quarter in which real GDP growth is below trend over the entire forecast horizon.
• Economists unanimously believe that AI will eventually disrupt the labor market, reducing labor demand in some sectors while increasing it in others. A majority (72%) of the panel anticipate that this disruption will materialize in the next five years.

Each month’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus – or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the unemployment rate.

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Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion. The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400 people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands.

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